As new technologies evolve, MP3 may go the way of old technologies like 8-track tapes. But the same prediction was made about Windows, which ranks as world leader for operating systems 20 years later. Here are some certainties:

* Hard drives will continue to evolve, becoming larger and faster and less expensive to produce. So the capacity of hard-drive based MP3 players should keep going up.

* Flash memory will also get faster and cheaper, blurring the lines betweem flash and hard drive-based machines.

* Convergence will be the main buzzword. Consumers don't like carrying an MP3 player, and a cell phone, and a PDA. Expect to see these converge into a single device.

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